Coastal marshes protect and support our coastal communities and economies by providing protection from storm surge, buffering pollutants, and providing recreational opportunities. To preserve these benefits as sea levels rise, coastal resource managers frequently make management decisions that will affect our marshes for decades to come. To support decision making, there are a number of models designed to predict short- and long-term changes in coastal habitat extent and health in response to rising seas. However, historically there have been challenges in understanding how to best apply the various models and their outputs. By conducting a retrospective analysis with existing marsh models, we will identify how well our marsh models predict our observed conditions today, increasing end-user certainty in marsh models’ ability to accurately predict future conditions and inform decision making.

Status: Active

Coastal resource management professionals frequently make management decisions that will affect the land they manage for decades to come. These include decisions over restoration resource allocation, information and educational installations, and advice and guidance to partners. In making these decisions, managers can turn to predictive models to assess the vulnerabilities that marshes may experience as sea levels rise. However, each model can differ in their purpose, the inputs that they consider, and their outputs. This variety allows models to be used in an array of applications, but these differences can also make it difficult for decision-makers to know which models to use and for what purposes. In order to help land managers choose the model that works best for their marsh and their planning and communication needs, we have been facilitating dialogue between marsh managers and marsh modelers.

This project has been taking steps towards being able to provide resource managers with clear guidance on how to apply the suite of available marsh models. Specifically, we are working towards developing the data foundation that is necessary to conduct a retrospective analysis of marsh models at three coastal marshes on the northern Gulf Coast and one coastal marsh on the Northeast Atlantic Coast. This project will deliver improved predictions of future marsh conditions based on the predominant marsh models to meet the needs of decision makers, researchers, and funding organizations. As a result of this work, decision-makers will be able to more effectively apply model outputs to improve resilience to sea-level rise.